Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Education offers a great deal of protection against unemployment

Unemployment rates vary by level of education locally
In the Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area, the unemployment rate for people without a high school diploma was almost double the rate for high school graduates and those with some college or an associate's degree AND four times higher than those who had earned a bachelor’s degree or higher.

2008 American Community Survey (Jacksonville MSA)
Less than a high school graduate
# Unemployed: 5,720
Unemployment rate: 11.9%

High school graduate
# Unemployed: 8,952
Unemployment rate: 5.6%

Some college or an associate’s degree
# Unemployed: 10,994
Unemployment rate: 5.3%

Bachelor’s degree or higher
# Unemployed: 4,282
Unemployment rate: 2.7%

B23006. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY EMPLOYMENT STATUS FOR THE POPULATION 25 TO 64 YEARS; Data Set: 2008 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates; Survey: American Community Survey.

Unemployment rates increase as the level of education decreases: This is a national trend.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Rates (United States)
Less than a high school diploma
July 2010 – 13.0% | 2009 Annual – 14.6% | 2008 Annual – 9.0%

High school graduates, no college
July 2010 – 9.9% | 2009 Annual – 9.7% | 2008 Annual – 5.7%

Less than a bachelor's degree
July 2010 – 8.6% | 2009 Annual –8.0% | 2008 Annual – 4.6%

College graduates
July 2010 – 5.0% | 2009 Annual – 4.6% | 2008 Annual – 2.6%

Table A-4. Employment status of the civilian population 25 years and over by educational attainment
http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab4.htm

What should communities do?
-Create jobs for and build/attract companies that hire workers with low levels of education?
-Implement policies that increase educational attainment for the community’s adults?
-What else?

Note: The Jacksonville MSA includes Duval County (Jacksonville and the cities of Jacksonville Beach, Atlantic Beach, Baldwin and Neptune Beach), Clay County, St. Johns County, Nassau County and Baker County.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Focus on bolstering local businesses? A solution for job growth/job creation?

The Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission (EDC) is shifting its focus from recruiting out-of-state businesses with big-bucks incentives to helping local companies grow.

Maureen Brockman, the commission's vice president of marketing and communications, said one of the group's goals is to "increasingly re-energize and reinvigorate our own existing industry-outreach program.

"I think people are recognizing there is a new normal, and we can't expect our economies to be built from the outside in," she said, adding that the commission has already embraced what is a national trend toward "economic gardening."

About 60 percent to 70 percent of the region's job growth already comes not from companies relocating to Central Florida but from businesses already here, Brockman added.

Chris Schmidt, a former deputy executive director at Orlando International Airport, said the region's troubled housing market has made it difficult to recruit workers from other cities. So educating and training workers from Central Florida is key to corporate expansion and employment growth, he said.

"One of the things that has to be focused on in the future — in my view — is Central Florida-based work-force growth," said Schmidt, now a consultant with Knob Hill Group. "Helping the people here grow so they've got more education, so they can take on more responsible jobs, as jobs are created here."

The EDC is seeking a new president who can bolster local business and build regional bridges "As part of this work, it has become apparent that the primary role of the president and CEO should be to strengthen relationships with our community leaders and mobilize them around shared goals," said Meg Crofton, the commission's chairwoman and president of Walt Disney World.

Regionalism hasn't always worked well for Metro Orlando, whose four counties have squabbled about things such as construction of a beltway around the city and other issues.

See the full story, “New strategy for adding jobs to Orlando region: Focus on boosting local companies, not luring others” (8-22-2010), at the Orlando Sentinel online http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/os-edc-new-direction-20100820,0,4969277.story  

Important Local Note: One of the key findings from JCCI Forward's Job Growth Issue Forum held in 2003 was, "Eighty percent of all new jobs in Jacksonville are produced by existing businesses. These businesses do not receive the same attention, support, and services by the local public and private partners as new or relocating businesses."

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Shopping local? A solution for job growth/job creation?

The City of New Orleans' Stay Local! initiative encourages people to act locally with regard to culture, commerce, and the environment. In June 2010 the unemployment rate in New Orleans was 8.2 percent, while the unemployment rates in Northeast Florida’s counties range from 9.6 to 15.4 percent. Is shopping local one of the solutions for economic sustainability and job creation?

Check out these reasons to shop locally from Stay Local! in New Orleans

1. Protect Local Character and Prosperity
New Orleans is unlike any other city in the world. By choosing to support locally owned businesses, you help maintain New Orleans’ diversity and distinctive flavor.

2. Community Well-Being
Locally owned businesses build strong neighborhoods by sustaining communities, linking neighbors, and by contributing more to local causes.

3. Local Decision Making
Local ownership means that important decisions are made locally by people who live in the community and who will feel the impacts of those decisions.

4. Keeping Dollars in the Local Economy
Your dollars spent in locally-owned businesses have three times the impact on your community as dollars spent at national chains. When shopping locally, you simultaneously create jobs, fund more city services through sales tax, invest in neighborhood improvement and promote community development.

5. Job and Wages
Locally owned businesses create more jobs locally and, in some sectors, provide better wages and benefits than chains do.

6. Entrepreneurship
Entrepreneurship fuels America’s economic innovation and prosperity, and serves as a key means for families to move out of low-wage jobs and into the middle class.

7. Public Benefits and Costs
Local stores in town centers require comparatively little infrastructure and make more efficient use of public services relative to big box stores and strip shopping malls.

8. Environmental Sustainability
Local stores help to sustain vibrant, compact, walkable town centers-which in turn are essential to reducing sprawl, automobile use, habitat loss, and air and water pollution.

9. Competition
A marketplace of tens of thousands of small businesses is the best way to ensure innovation and low prices over the long-term.

10. Product Diversity
A multitude of small businesses, each selecting products based, not on a national sales plan, but on their own interests and the needs of their local customers, guarantees a much broader range of product choices.

Stay Local New Orleans: http://www.staylocal.org/facts/why/
Unemployment information: "New Orleans gained 1,700 jobs in June" The Times Picayune
http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2010/07/new_orleans_unemployment_rate_2.html

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Unemployment in Florida falls to 6% by 2018?

Florida's job market is headed the wrong direction again, and there's growing concern it may get a little worse before it gets better.

The state's unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 11.5 percent in July, reversing three months of declines. A statewide group of economists predicts the rate will move up to 11.8 percent later this year when more discouraged job seekers now on the sidelines re-enter the market and federal stimulus dollars dry up.

Florida's unemployment rate, up from 11.4 percent in June, translates to more than one million jobless out of a labor force of 9.2 million. Add in discouraged Floridians not counted as looking and part-timers unable to find full-time jobs, and the broader unemployment rate would be 19.8 percent, state officials said.

In a media conference call, AWI chief economist Rebecca Rust said mixed signals are typical in the "trough" of a recession. She called it more likely "a lull in the recovery" rather than the start of a double-dip recession.

"Why is it taking so long for us to have our economic recovery?" Rust asked aloud before proceeding to suggest a flurry of reasons. Among them:
• Credit conditions are tight.
• The traditional relationship between companies posting higher profits and then adding jobs appears to be gone.
• Consumers are more frugal and, even if they wanted, can no longer tap their home equity to spend like they used to.

"It's the paradox of thrift," Rust said. Tight-fisted consumers "improve their personal household standing, but it ends up hurting the economy with less consumption."

"We knew the recovery process was going to be extremely drawn out," said Mark Vitner, who tracks Florida as a senior economist with Wells Fargo. "The economy looked as though it was improving more than it actually was because of all the stimulus spending and a boost from inventory rebuilding. Now that those two factors are slowing, we're seeing what appears to be a broad-based slowdown in the economy."

Economists with the Florida Economic Estimating Conference predict the jobless rate will top out at 11.8 percent in the third and fourth quarter before beginning a very gradual retreat. The conference doesn't expect unemployment to get back into the single digits until 2012 and sees it eventually falling to a healthier range of 6 percent by the fiscal year 2017-18.

See the full story, "Florida's unemployment rate ticks up to 11.5 percent"  by Jeff Harrington at the St. Pete Times website.
http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/workinglife/floridas-unemployment-rate-ticks-up-to-115-percent/1116434

Friday, August 20, 2010

Looking to relocate? NE FL has qualified people, but what about incentives?

In April 2010, the talk that Harley Davidson might move its plant from its 100 year old home in Milwaukee to reduce costs and make it more competitive with foreign rivals. Though such talk might be the result of union negotiations, Jacksonville’s manufacturing and labor advocates say the city would be a viable place if Harley Davidson relocated its 1,700 jobs locally.

Worksource Vice President Candace Moody says that their database is the largest repository of jobs and job-seekers in the region, and that her agency could easily produce a number of qualified people with skills that either apply directly to what the manufacturer needs or can be transferred after training.

But Jacksonville faces competitive barriers just because it’s in Florida, says Lad Daniels, president of the First Coast Manufacturers Association. Florida is surrounded by states that are more aggressive when it comes to wooing large employers.

“I’d say among Florida cities, we are the pick of the litter. The Southeast is pretty competitive, and Jacksonville is about as far south as they would want to look. But our incentives at the state and local levels are not what they get in other states,”

John Haley, senior vice president for business development for Cornerstone. He noted that Florida’s incentives to bring industry here center on jobs directly created. Additionally, some of those incentives run out of time more quickly than corporations can make decisions, so they miss out on some of them. He said other states have sweetened the pot better with longer-term, more capital-oriented incentives that amount to investments in the economic vitality of their communities.

“Our incentive process needs to recognize the value of capital investment.”

For example, Alabama weathered criticism in 1993 when it successfully proffered $300,000 in incentives per job to persuade Mercedes-Benz to put its $300 million Mercedes-Benz U.S. International Inc. SUV factory in Tuscaloosa County, Haley noted.

“That built an infrastructure that was conducive to heavy manufacturing like this,” he said. And since then, Hyundai and Honda also have built plants in the state.

Florida is also known for unwieldy and lengthy permit approval processes, something other states have stripped down, Haley said. For that reason, Jacksonville needs to better emphasize its industrial developments that are pre-permitted, he said.

Check out the full story "Jacksonville labor base ready for large manufacturers, officials say: City also has barriers, like smaller incentives."
http://jacksonville.com/business/2010-08-17/story/jacksonville-labor-base-ready-large-manufacturers-officials-say

Thursday, August 19, 2010

3 to 5 Years Before Unemployment Rate Normalizes

Below is an excerpt from Karen Brune Mathis' story covering a presentation made by IBM's Chief Economist at JCCI on 8-18-2010. Check out the full article at Jacksonville's Financial News and Daily Record http://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/showstory.php?Story_id=531709

IBM Corp.’s chief economist predicts it will be 2013 to 2015 before unemployment, now around 10 percent, falls by half to what’s considered a healthy rate.

“My guess is it would be three to five years before we see unemployment getting back to 5 percent,” said Philip Swan, who has been with IBM for 36 years.

Job creation is the key to economic recovery, he said, because it influences consumer confidence.

That confidence has eroded since the recession began in December 2007 and has yet to be declared officially over.

In December 2007, unemployment was 5 percent and underemployment was 4 percent, totaling 9 percent.

Underemployment is the situation in which workers might be working part-time or less and want full-time or other more secure hours.

Now, national unemployment is 9.5 percent and underemployment is 7 percent, which totals 16.5 percent.

“We have never seen anything that dire,” he said.

Looking at the numbers of people affected, Swan said there are 7.4 million people unemployed and 5.6 million underemployed, leading to 13 million people who want secure employment.

Swan said the economy needed to generate 120,000 jobs a month merely to absorb new people entering the labor force. To start whittling down the unemployment rate, that growth needs to be 250,000 jobs monthly, he said.

Swan thinks the economy could reach that pace in five to six months.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

NE FL County Snapshots - Population, Unemployment, and Employment Sectors

BAKER COUNTY
2009 population estimate: 25,899. This represents a 21.9 percent increase from 1999.

The total civilian labor force in Baker County for June 2010 was 12,366, of which 10,985 were employed and 1,381 were unemployed. The unemployment rate was 11.2 percent.

The total number of employees located in Baker County in 3rd Quarter 2009 was 6,848. The largest major industry sector was Health Care and Social Assistance (with 26 percent of the employment), followed by Retail Trade (44-45) (with 14 percent), and Public Administration (with 13 percent).

CLAY COUNTY
2009 population estimate: 185,208. This represents a 36.1 percent increase from 1999.

The total civilian labor force in Clay County for June 2010 was 96,322, of which 86,417 were employed and 9,905 were unemployed. The unemployment rate was 10.3 percent.

The total number of employees located in Clay County in 3rd Quarter 2009 was 42,036. The largest major industry sector was Retail Trade (44-45) (with 20 percent of the employment), followed by Health Care and Social Assistance (with 15 percent), and Accommodation and Food Services (with 13 percent).

DUVAL COUNTY
2009 population estimate: 900,518. This represents a 17.7 percent increase from 1999.

The total civilian labor force in Duval County for June 2010 was 451,519, of which 398,649 were employed and 52,870 were unemployed. The unemployment rate was 11.7 percent.

The total number of employees located in Duval County in 3rd Quarter 2009 was 428,693. The largest major industry sector was Health Care and Social Assistance (with 14 percent of the employment), followed by Retail Trade (44-45) (with 12 percent), and Finance and Insurance (with 10 percent).

FLAGLER COUNTY
2009 population estimate: 94,901. This represents a 102.5 percent increase from 1999.

The total civilian labor force in Flagler County for June 2010 was 32,713, of which 27,661 were employed and 5,052 were unemployed. The unemployment rate was 15.4 percent.

The total number of employees located in Flagler County in 3rd Quarter 2009 was 17,403. The largest major industry sector was Retail Trade (44-45) (with 18 percent of the employment), followed by Health Care and Social Assistance (with 11 percent), and Accommodation and Food Services (with 11 percent).

NASSAU COUNTY
2009 population estimate: 72,567. This represents a 31.0 percent increase from 1999.

The total civilian labor force in Nassau County for June 2010 was 36,575, of which 32,641 were employed and 3,934 were unemployed. The unemployment rate was 10.8 percent.

The total number of employees located in Nassau County in 3rd Quarter 2009 was 17,268. The largest major industry sector was Accommodation and Food Services (with 21 percent of the employment), followed by Retail Trade (44-45) (with 16 percent), and Health Care and Social Assistance (with 8 percent).

PUTNAM COUNTY
2009 population estimate: 74,608. This represents a 6.7 percent increase from 1999.

The total civilian labor force in Putnam County for June 2010 was 31,956, of which 27,667 were employed and 4,289 were unemployed. The unemployment rate was 13.4 percent.

The total number of employees located in Putnam County in 3rd Quarter 2009 was 17,157. The largest major industry sector was Retail Trade (44-45) (with 15 percent of the employment), followed by Health Care and Social Assistance (with 13 percent), and Manufacturing (31-33) (with 13 percent).

ST. JOHNS COUNTY
2009 population estimate: 183,500. This represents a 57.2 percent increase from 1999.

The total civilian labor force in St. Johns County for June 2010 was 96,311, of which 87,045 were employed and 9,266 were unemployed. The unemployment rate was 9.6 percent.

The total number of employees located in St. Johns County in 3rd Quarter 2009 was 52,677. The largest major industry sector was Accommodation and Food Services (with 17 percent of the employment), followed by Retail Trade (44-45) (with 14 percent), and Health Care and Social Assistance (with 12 percent).

Monday, August 16, 2010

Three Jobs For Every Unemployed Person in Jacksonville?

Below is an excerpt from Tom Patton's post at the Jacksovnille Observer. Check out the full article at http://bit.ly/threejobs

Three jobs per unemployed person. That’s an impressive statistic, isn’t it?

The online job aggregator Indeed.com has determined that, based on the job listings for Jacksonville, there are three job postings available for every unemployed person in the city.

That’s the second highest in the nation.

So, you might ask, why are we not at full employment? Why is anyone out of a job? Why aren’t employers clamoring for employees, paying way over market value for any warm body to fill positions?

The question becomes, are they real jobs?

If there were truly three actual jobs for every job seeker in Jacksonville, the Worksource meetings wouldn’t be full to overflowing. It’s easy to go online and post a job to an service. But if you eliminate all the duplications, the franchise or multi-level marketing “opportunities”, and the ridiculous things like “Plasma Donor”, you might have much better picture of the actual opportunities that are available. For those, applicants might need a high level of specialized education for things like RN, LPN or other medical fields, or some very specific experience.

If, with all that, there are three postings for every job seeker in this market, what must the true employment picture be like in a place like Detroit, where there is one posting listed for every 18 people looking for work?

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Low unemployment in the nation’s new boomtowns

Throughout the good times and, more important, the bad of this new millennium, the cities of the plains—from Dallas in the south through Omaha, Des Moines, and north to Fargo—have enjoyed strong job growth and in-migration from the rest of the country. North Dakota boasts the nation’s lowest unemployment rate—3.6 percent, compared with the national average of 9.7—with South Dakota and Nebraska right behind it.

The trend has been particularly strong in urban areas. Based on employment growth over the last decade, the North Dakota cities of Bismarck and Fargo rank in the top 10 of nearly 400 metropolitan areas, according to data analyzed by economist Michael Shires for Forbes and NewGeography.com. Much of that growth has come in high-wage jobs. In Bismarck, the number of high-paying energy jobs has increased by 23 percent since 2003, while jobs in professional and business services have shot up 40 percent.

The primary drivers of this new growth are basic industries like agriculture and energy, according to Debora Dragseth, an associate professor of business at Dickinson State University. Salaries may be low by coastal standards, but so are living costs. And the prices of commodities like beef, soybeans, and grains have generally continued to rise, due in large part to growing demand from China, India, and other developing countries.

But the biggest play by far is in energy, including coal, natural gas, and oil, which exist in prodigious quantities from Texas to the Canadian border. Besides the vast reserves of oil that have made it the country’s fourth-largest producer, North Dakota possesses significant deposits of natural gas and coal, as well as huge potential for wind power and biofuels. These industries are drawing hundreds of skilled workers from places like California and Michigan, who are moving into Bismarck, the state’s capital, and towns to the west.

Nowhere is this potential clearer than in Fargo, which is emerging as a high-tech hub. Doug Burgum, from nearby Arthur, N.D., founded Great Plains Software in the mid-1980s. Burgum says he saw potential in the engineering grads pumped out by North Dakota State University, many of whom worked in Fargo’s large and expanding specialty-farm-equipment industry. “My business strategy is to be close to the source of supply,” says Burgum. “North Dakota gave us access to the raw material of college students.”

Microsoft bought Great Plains for a reported $1.1 billion in 2001, establishing Fargo as the headquarters for its business-systems division, which now employs more than 1,000 workers. The tech boom started by Burgum has spawned both startups and spin-offs in everything from information technology to biomedicine. Science and engineering employment statewide has grown by 31 percent since 2002, the highest rate of any state.

These jobs, and the people they attract, shower cash on the community's local businesses such as the busy bars and dining establishments in Fargo's Broadway Commercial District.

The full article, “The Great Plains: How Heartland Cities Like Fargo and Omaha Became the Nation’s New Boomtowns” by Joel Kotkin, appeared in Newsweek Magazine on August 12, 2010 (page 50).

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Experts on Economic Recovery in Northeast Florida

Is Northeast Florida in recovery?

Carol Dole
Assistant Professor of Economics Davis College of Business Jacksonville University

Northeast Florida has one problem not all parts of the U.S. have. The housing market is still perilously perched. Will prices rise or still fall? The problems of underwater mortgages and foreclosures and the impact on household spending continue to dampen the recovery in the area. I don’t see possibilities for strong job growth.

Paul Mason
Professor of Economics Coggin College of Business University of North Florida

I think that we are, but even slower than the national recovery. Our larger housing glut than average combined with reduced tourism due to the perception of the oil spill effects and our dependence on financial services industries has made this recession more powerful in the local area. We were spared the worst of the early 1980s, early 1990s and early 2000s recessions, but this one has hit us much harder than we are accustomed to, and the recovery will be slow and bumpy.

Lynn Reaser
Chief Economist Fermanian Business and Economic Institute Point Loma Nazarene University, San Diego
President, National Association for Business Economics

Northeast Florida appears to be gradually recovering along with the rest of the country. The largest constraints involve commercial real estate and state and local government spending. On the positive side, international trade, tourism, health care, and business services are providing some positive support. Single-family homebuilding has also picked up this year.

Mark Vitner
Managing Director and Senior Economist Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Northeast Florida is in recovery but has a great deal of ground to recover. The greater Jacksonville area lost 56,000 jobs during the recession and permits for new single-family homes tumbled more than 80.9 percent from their peak in late 2005. Economic development activity has also picked up recently, which should lead to stronger job gains later this year.

For the full story published, "The Experts Say..." (8-5-2010) visit the Financial News and Daily Record online http://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/showstory.php?Story_id=531609  

Friday, August 6, 2010

Corporate profits increase, but companies are not hiring

Government statistics through the first quarter of 2010 show that corporate profits recovered 87 percent of what they lost in the recession.

This rebound in profits frees companies to be more aggressive. Standard & Poor's 500 index companies, like Apple, Boeing and Caterpillar, are sitting on huge cash reserves; a record of $838 billion as of the end of March, up 26 percent from a year earlier. "They have the wherewithal to do whatever they want -- hire; make new investments; raise dividends; do mergers and acquisitions," says S&P's Howard Silverblatt. Historically, higher profits lead to higher employment, says Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com.

From late 2007 to late 2009, payroll employment dropped nearly 8.4 million. Since then, the economy has recovered a scant 11 percent of those lost jobs. Companies are doing much better than workers; that defines today's economy.

The most obvious explanation is that the relationship between labor and capital (to borrow Marxist vocabulary) has changed. Capital has gotten stronger; labor has weakened. Economist Robert J. Gordon of Northwestern University argues that the "shift of executive compensation towards much greater use of stock options" has made corporate managers more zealous cost-cutters in recessions and more reluctant hirers early in recoveries. Lowering the headcount is the quickest way to restore profits and, from there, a company's stock price.

Jobless recoveries have become standard. After the 1990-91 recession, consistent employment growth did not resume for about a year; the lag was nearly two years after the 2001 recession.

In hindsight, the massive job cuts of 2008 and 2009 should not have been surprising. "With the collapse of the financial system," says economist Lynn Reaser of Point Loma Nazarene University in San Diego, "companies had to conserve cash desperately, (because) they couldn't rely on outside financing." So they savagely axed jobs, inventories and new investment projects (computers, machinery, and factories).

"Businesses can't cost cut their way to consistent profit growth," argues Zandi. "Eventually, they need to generate revenue growth that requires investment and hiring."

But it's unclear whether corporate elites were so traumatized by the crisis that they've adopted a bunker mentality…paring expenses to maximize profits, hoarding cash to protect against a future financial crisis, waiting to hire until sales improve. Such strategies could sabotage economic recovery.

The full article “The Big Hiring Freeze: Profits are up, buy cost-cutting continues” appeared in Newsweek Magazine on August 2, 2010 (page 26).