As of August 2010, according to Moody’s Analytics Adversity Index, the Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) was “At risk” for continued recession. The Index measures employment, single family housing starts, housing prices, and industrial production. Take a look at these Jacksonville MSA numbers.
8.2010 (“At Risk): Employment (-0.31%) | Single family housing starts (-0.67%) | Housing prices (N/A) | Industrial production (+5.22%)
So what did the Jacksonville MSA look like a year ago?
8.2009 (“Recession”): Employment (-6.17%) | Single family housing starts (+35.82%) | Housing prices (-7.95%) | Industrial production (-9.97%)
What about 2 years ago in the Jacksonville MSA?
8.2008 (“Recession”): Employment (-2.16%) | Single family housing starts (-31.79%) | Housing prices (-10.78%) | Industrial production (-2.08%)
Jacksonville MSA Strengths
-Military base underpinning strong demographic trends.
-Growth drivers in tourism and port.
-Low-cost center for financial services.
-Competitive living costs.
Jacksonville MSA Weaknesses
-Below-average incomes.
-Reliance on federal defense spending.
-Very susceptible to downturns in the business cycle.
In August 2008 there were seven states considered “In Recovery” – Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Alaska, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. These states were still considered “In Recovery” as of August 2010.
How have some of the large metro areas in these states fared since 2008?
Austin, Texas MSA
8.2010 (“Recovery”): Employment (+2.06%) | Single family housing starts (-24.36%) | Housing prices (N/A) | Industrial production (+9.17%)
8.2009 (“Recovery”): Employment (-2.75%) | Single family housing starts (-0.39%) | Housing prices (-0.39%) | Industrial production (-10.49%)
8.2008 (“Expansion”): Employment (+2.22%) | Single family housing starts (-38.32%) | Housing prices +3.73%) | Industrial production (+5.32%)
Austin MSA Strengths
-Strong population growth supports demographically driven consumer demand.
-Well-educated labor force attracts high value-added tech businesses.
Austin MSA Weaknesses
-Competitive pressure of foreign high-tech manufacturing challenges local industry.
-Tech cycle adds to cyclical volatility of overall local economy.
Denver, Colorado MSA
8.2010 (“Recovery”): Employment (-1.00%) | Single family housing starts (+10.9%) | Housing prices (N/A) | Industrial production (+5.74%)
8.2009 (“Recession”): Employment (-5.06%) | Single family housing starts (-34.08%) | Housing prices (-0.66%) | Industrial production (-8.98%)
8.2008 (“Expansion”): Employment (+1.05%) | Single family housing starts (-48.01%) | Housing prices (-0.52%) | Industrial production (-2.21%)
Denver MSA Strengths
-High concentration of high-tech industries and skilled workers.
-Per capita income is well above the national average.
-Strong demographic trends.
-Credit quality has held up well during the recession.
Denver MSA Weaknesses
-High dependence on volatile industries.
-Fiscal conditions are deteriorating
Boston, Massachusetts MSA
8.2010 (“Recovery”): Employment (+1.3%) | Single family housing starts (-3.12%) | Housing prices (N/A) | Industrial production (+7.1%)
8.2009 (“Recession”): Employment (-4.15%) | Single family housing starts (-12.73%) | Housing prices (-3.53%) | Industrial production (-9.44%)
8.2008 (“Expansion”): Employment (+0.4%) | Single family housing starts (-33.6%) | Housing prices (-4.47%) | Industrial production (-0.38%)
Boston MSA Strengths
-Business capital of New England.
-Access to skilled labor force and venture capital for emerging companies.
-Dynamic high-tech and biomedical research and development industries.
Boston MSA Weaknesses
-Very high business and living costs.
-Weak population growth.
-Highly exposed to cyclical financial and tech industries.
Note: The employment, housing, and industrial figures above are three month averages.
For more information about the Moody Adversity Index: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29866676
Comparison of the statistics (Moody’s Analytics Adversity Indices) across cities and time periods does not reveal many noteworthy patterns. All of the cities experienced declines in the indices during the recession and all are recovering at a slow pace. Jacksonville seems to be recovering at a slower pace than the comparison cities. When the strengths are compared, all cities seem to have well-educated and skilled labor forces with the exception of Jacksonville. The comparison cities also seem to have more personal wealth among the citizenry and/or access to venture capital. The common thread among the weaknesses of the cities is the lack diversity in the economic drivers and over-reliance on a particular industry, business, and/or revenue source.
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